creamandcheese

On Thursday the U.N.'s weather agency announced that 2010 was a milestone, the warmest year on record, in a three-way tie with 2005 and 1998. "The 2010 data confirm the Earth's significant long-term warming trend," said Michel Jarraud, the World Meteorological Organization's top official. He added that the ten warmest years after records began in 1854 have all occurred since 1998.

But how reliable is the data? Here are five good reasons some scientists are skeptical of these claims.

1. Where does the data come from? Average temperatures globally last year were 0.95 degrees Fahrenheit (0.53 Celsius) higher than the 1961-90 mean that is used for comparison purposes, according to the WMO -- a statement based on three climate data sets from U.K. and U.S. weather agencies. They gather readings from land-based weather and climate stations, ships and buoys, and satellites -- and they've come under dramatic scrutiny in recent years.

The land data is being challenged extensively by Anthony Watt on his SurfaceStations.org website. Watts recently graded 61% of the stations used to measure temperature with a D -- for being located less than 10 meters from an artificial heating source. Many climate skeptics also take issue with NASA and NOAA, the U.S. agencies that gather U.S. climate data, but also manipulate and "normalize" it.

Satellite data is arguably the most accurate way to measure temperature. Roy Spencer, a climatologist and former NASA scientist, takes issue with the way that data is normalized and adjusted, instead presenting raw, unadjusted data on his website. The WMO does not use this data.

Watts pointed FoxNews.com to a new, peer-reviewed paper that looks at the reliability of the land-based sensor network, concluding that "it is presently impossible to quantify the warming trend in global climate."

2. There's less ice is in the oceans. Or more. Or something. The WMO report notes that Arctic sea-ice cover in December 2010 was the lowest on record, with an average monthly extent of 12 million square kilometers, 1.35 million square kilometers below the 1979-2000 average for December. The agency called it the third-lowest minimum ice extent recorded in September.

In fact, the overall sea-ice record shows virtually no change throughout the past 30 years, argued Lord Monckton, a British politician, journalist, and noted skeptic of global warming. He points out that "the quite rapid loss of Arctic sea ice since the satellites were watching has been matched by a near-equally rapid gain of Antarctic sea ice."

When the summer Arctic sea ice reached its lowest point in the 30-year record in mid-September 2007, just three weeks later the Antarctic sea extent reached a 30-year record high, Monckton said.

3. El Niño has been playing havoc with temperatures. Over the ten years from 2001 to 2010, global temperatures have averaged 0.46°C (0.83°F) above the 1961-1990 average, the report points out, calling these measurements "the highest ever recorded for a 10-year period since the beginning of instrumental climate records." The WMO notes that warming has been especially strong in Africa, parts of Asia, and parts of the Arctic.

Of course temperatures are up, said Joe Bastardi, a meteorologist with Accuweather: It's El Niño, stupid.

"El Niños cause spikes up. La Niñas drop it down," Bastardi told FoxNews.com. "Why have we gone up overall in the past 30 years? Because we've been in a warm cycle in the Pacific," he said. "But the tropical Pacific has cooled dramatically, and it's like turning down your thermostat -- it takes a while, but the house will cool."

Japan's Meteorological Agency agrees with Bastardi's conclusion, stating recently that "it can be presumed that the high temperatures in recent years have been influenced by natural climate fluctuations with the periods ranging from several years to several decades," as well as by greenhouse gases including CO2.

"This year’s warming can also be attributable to an El Niño event which lasted from summer 2009 to spring 2010," the agency said.

4. Besides, it's getting chilly. 2010 may have been a warm year, but 2011 has been off to a very cold start -- and may be among the coldest in decades.

"December 2010 was the second-coldest December in the entire history dating back to 1659," noted Steve McIntyre, a climate scientist and the editor of climate blog Climate Audit. He bases his claim on data from the longest continuous record in the world, kept by The Met Office, the U.K.'s official weather agency.

It's an odd fact, one Bastardi thinks is telling. He said that the transition from the El Niño warming period into the La Niña cooling period will herald a crash of global temperatures, normalizing world heat levels -- especially when analyzed via Spencer's satellite data charts.

"If we look at the last 30 years, then the coming 30 years will cool back to where we were in the late 70s," he said. "Look at it this way. Suppose you didn't have a scale until 3 weeks ago. Every day for the last 3 weeks you weigh yourself and you are 175 or so. One morning you are 175.1 How much weight have you gained?"

You're the heaviest you have ever been, right? "If you weren't weighing yourself before, or were using a different scale, can you really say this is the heaviest ever?" he asked.

5. Forecasts are often wrong. Predicting the weather -- especially a decade or more in advance -- is unbelievably challenging. In 2000, a scientist with the Met Office's Climatic Research Unit declared that within ten years, snowfall would be "a very rare and exciting event."

And in 1970 at the first Earth Day event, one researcher predicted that the planet would be 11 degrees colder by the year 2000.

FoxNews.com recently compiled eight of the most egregiously mistaken predictions, and asked the predictors to reflect on what really happened.

# posted by faburous @ 3:51 AM 0 comments

The United Launch Alliance successfully blasted off the largest ever rocket from the West Coast Thursday evening.

At 1:10 p.m. PST, private rocket group the United Lanch aliance successfully launched a The 235-foot-tall Delta IV Heavy rocket -- one of a class of "heavy-lift" rockets designed to carry massive payloads such as satellites. It marked the largest rocket ever to lift off from the West Coast.

The launch was moved back by two minutes from 1:08 p.m. to avoid an object in space, said Michael J. Rein, spokesman for United Launch Alliance, the joint venture of rocket builders Lockheed Martin Corp. and Boeing Co.

The take-off was then a success: The booster rose into the sky over California's central coast and arced over the Pacific Ocean, a spectacle visible over a wide area. Initial reports from launch control indicated the flight was going well, with the rocket hitting speeds of 14,000 feet per second a few minutes into its launch.

The rocket carried a mysterious payload into space on the NROL-49 mission: a clandestine satellite for the National Reconnaissance Office described only as something that will "support the military's national defense mission." The NRO operates satellites that provide information to the Central Intelligence Agency and Department of Defense.

# posted by faburous @ 3:58 AM 0 comments

Dyer broke stride, then took off on a once-in-a-lifetime run in the final minutes, setting up a field goal on the last play that led No. 1 Auburn over the No. 2 Ducks 22-19 in the BCS championship game Monday night.

The freshman running back upstaged Auburn's Heisman-winning quarterback Cam Newton with a 37-yard run, in which he appeared down but wasn't -- his knee never hit the ground -- as he rolled over Oregon defender Eddie Pleasant to put the Tigers in scoring position.

Three plays later, Dyer ran 16 yards to push the ball to the 1 and set up Wes Byrum's 19-yard field goal with no time left. It was his sixth career game-winning field goal -- the one that capped off a perfect, 14-0 season, brought the title back to Auburn for the first time since 1957 and left the Southeastern Conference on top for the fifth straight year.

"Fifty-three years, baby," coach Gene Chizik said to the cheering crowd. "This is for you. War Eagle!"

A classic sequence to close out a wild finish -- five crazy minutes of football that made up for the first 55, which were more of a bruising battle than the offensive masterpiece everyone had predicted.

The craziness began when Casey Matthews, son of the 1980s NFL linebacker Clay, knocked the ball from Newton's hands while he was trying to ice a 19-11 lead.

Oregon's offense, shut down by Nick Fairley & Co. for most of the night, moved 45 yards over the next 2:17 and Darron Thomas threw a shovel pass to LaMichael James for a touchdown. Thomas hit Jeff Maehl for the tying 2-point conversion with 2:33 left and the game was down to one possession.

And that possession will be remembered for one incredible play.

Dyer took the handoff from Newton and ran off right tackle for what looked like a 6- or 7-yard gain. Nothing routine about this one, though. He never heard a whistle, wasn't sure his knee hit the ground, so he popped up and kept going. Almost everyone on the field had stopped playing, but the referee never blew the play dead. Dyer made it to the Oregon 23. An official's review ensued and the replay showed that, indeed, his knee had never touched the turf.

"I was going out there, trying to make a play. I just kept my feet moving," he said.

The freshman finished with 143 yards and was named Offensive Player of the Game -- no small feat considering he had the Heisman Trophy winner, Newton, playing well on the same offense.

Newton threw for 265 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 64 yards, most in short, punishing bites.

It was a good performance, but not spectacular -- par for the course in a game that was projected as a possible 60-55 shootout by Steve Spurrier and a 74-point touchdown-fest by the oddsmakers who set the over-under.

Wearing white jerseys, green pants and DayGlo shoes and socks, the Ducks got only 49 yards rushing from James. An offense that had been held under 37 points only once all year managed just the two touchdowns. The last one came on a simple shovel pass from Thomas, who finished with 363 yards -- 81 of which came on a long pass to Maehl that set up the first touchdown.

Oregon was held below 37 points for only the second time all season and the fast-paced offense that turned most opponents into mush in the second half had trouble wearing down Auburn.

Fairley, Auburn's 298-pound defensive tackle, did the most damage. He lived up to his reputation as a game-changer for better, with three tackles for loss, including a sack -- and for worse, when he got a 15-yard penalty for shoving James' face into the turf after the whistle.

Newton was a game-changer as always, keeping Auburn ahead in this tight game, the final outing in a season shadowed by an NCAA investigation into his failed recruitment by Mississippi State. The governing body cleared him to play before the SEC championship but said his father, Cecil, solicited money from the Bulldogs.

Cecil, not in the stands Monday night, missed a heck of a finish.

# posted by faburous @ 4:08 AM 0 comments

Harbhajan Singh, or popularly Bhajji as he is known to India's cricket faithful, captured a wicket in each of his first two overs at the start of play on day four of the Third Test at Sahara Park Newlands, on Wednesday.

Bhajji's double blow meant that South Africa's overnight total of 52/2 (16 overs) was reduced to 64/4 (19.5 overs) after only 24 balls had been bowled in the morning session. Singh's two wickets came in the space of him sending down a mere seven deliveries.

First to perish was Petersen when Singh struck him on the pads to get his third lbw decision in South Africa's second innings. And Amla was next when he had no answer to a bouncy Singh delivery which he tried to sweep. Instead the ball castled his stumps.

Jacques Kallis was playing positive despite the fact that his captain Graeme Smith had said earlier than the team would be playing "not to lose" rather than trying to win the match.
At the other end AB De Villiers was playing sensibly and well within himself until the dreaded bad luck 13 struck. He decided to leave a fairly harmless-looking 128.9 kph delivery from Zaheer Khan and the next thing two of his three stumps were cartwheeling down to the boundary! Out for 13, off 58 balls, and South Africa were reeling at 98/8.

When the lunch dawned SA were 121/4 (44 overs) with Kallis on 33 not out and Ashwell Prince on 15 not out.
And for the statistically minded, the day 4 scoreboard reads: SA 69/3 (28 overs).
Are we heading for an early finish? Watch this space!

# posted by faburous @ 3:06 AM 0 comments